HOJLUND'S UNITED FUTURE HANGS IN THE BALANCE
Boil it down to the raw numbers, and 13 goals in 54 Premier League games is a poor return on a £64 million investment, with another £8 million in potential add-ons. Nobody can currently argue that Rasmus Hojlund has been good value for Manchester United.
The 22-year-old remains an inconsistent striker, frustratingly unpredictable in his performances. After scoring against Leicester City and then netting for Denmark against Portugal, there was optimism that he had turned a corner. His goal earned him a start in the second leg of the Nations League quarter-final, but he was subbed off just after the 70-minute mark and criticised in the Danish media for an underwhelming display.
Now, he returns to Carrington with hope that, after finally breaking his 21-game goal drought for United, his fortunes will change permanently. However, pressure will be on for the rest of the season, as a new striker is reportedly near the top of Ruben Amorim’s summer wishlist. Whether it is Viktor Gyokeres, Victor Osimhen, or another forward, United’s next addition will likely push Hojlund down the pecking order unless he ends the campaign with a flourish of goals.
Hojlund has even been linked with a move away from Old Trafford, potentially as part of a deal to bring Osimhen to United. But right now, United wouldn’t come close to recouping their initial investment in him. It was always a risky signing, and nearly two years on, there are still questions about whether it was a wise one.
Despite that, there is a reason why United might not be ready to give up on him just yet. His league return is unimpressive, but his underlying numbers tell a slightly different story. His 13 goals have come from an expected goals (xG) tally of 10.6, meaning he is actually overperforming his xG. That suggests his finishing isn’t the real issue.
Former United striker Danny Webber recently highlighted this when speaking to Inside United magazine. “If you look at the goals he’s scored since he’s been at United, most of them are strikers’ goals when he’s in and around 12 yards from goal, with one and two touches in the box,” Webber said.
“If we can get him in those positions, I think he will finish chances. I like his endeavour; he’s up for the scrap, which is a prerequisite, and something you want from your forwards and all of your players.”
“In the box, his finishing is sublime—his one-touch and two-touch finishes. He knows how to manoeuvre the ball, which is something you need as a striker. There are many who play in that position who don’t know how to do what he does. The challenge is getting him in those positions more often and running the channels.”
Sublime might be an exaggeration, but his finishing is sharp, and there is evidence of that. He also has the pace to fit into Amorim’s system, with the coach wanting his striker to stretch play and be in the right areas to convert chances.
If there is a major criticism of Hojlund, it is that he does not do enough to create his own chances. He has been let down by a lack of service from teammates, but at this level, strikers often have to manufacture opportunities themselves. He isn’t quite there yet.
He does, however, know where the back of the net is. If United were creating enough chances for a striker to reach an xG of 20 per season, Hojlund could be a 20-goal-a-season player. That would certainly justify his place.
To reach that level, he must refine his game. He needs to get better at battling centre-backs and finding space in the box to give his teammates an outlet. But dig deeper, and the stats suggest his finishing is not the main concern. That is why United are unlikely to give up on him just yet.